Gambling Blog

Whatever time of the day you log on to a betting site there will be a market for you to gamble on, the odds will be changing and the chances are if it is a popular sport it will be very active.  But how do gambling markets really work and how can they change so quickly?

If you take a step back from the traditional gambling market and just think through exactly what you are seeing.  In front of your eyes you are seeing the rapid dissemination of information, the odds changing with the weight of money and a coming together of news and views.  A gambling market is basically an information exchange where all known (and often inside) information is entered into the market and the relevant odds produced.  Information prompts people to bet and the weight of money will move the market – although there are often times when a market will move on information alone, e.g. if the favourite horse were to drop out of a race the other horses left would have a better chance of winning and their odds would change accordingly.

When you see sudden movements in the odds for a certain event, if you watch carefully you may see them go a little too far in one direction and then be slowly drawn back in.  The market has a great ability to level itself out in a very short space of time, although you may still experience short term spikes and falls.  One of the main problems with the gambling markets is the fact that they are often very susceptible to rumours and wild accusations, but again you will see these views digested by the market and “fair odds” arrived at in a very short space of time – the market will soon tell you whether the rumours are correct.

If you learn how to read the gambling markets you can actually learn a lot and make some substantial returns.  To do this you need to “follow the money” and not include any emotion in your decision, just follow the market.  While it won’t work all of the time, you will be surprised – but then again you are only gambling on the market disseminating the information correctly!

While they have already managed to cut off much of the supply line for the illegal gambling on Asian Football, Interpol are coming back for more with news that they are putting together a second swoop on racketeers in the area who are involved in illegal gambling as well as possible match fixing. 

While the first raid last June saw 423 arrests across China, Hong Kong, Macau, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam there are already plans well under way to mop up the remaining illegal gambling operations.  It was estimated that at approaching 300 illegal operations were closed down last year, operations which were rumoured to have handled bets to the tune of C$680 million! As well as closing down the operation the authorities were able to “reclaim” some C$680,000 in cash which has now been confiscated.

So is this just the tip of the iceberg or has the monster been slain?

The problem with gambling in areas such as the Far East is the fact that demand is so high that there will always be a market.  As soon as one illegal betting operation closes down another one opens because the demand is there.  The main reason for the recent raids was the fact that closely linked to illegal gambling has been the “art” of match fixing and corruption.  This is an area which even reached the UK some years ago with one particular football match being exposed as part of a corruption scandal after the lights were tampered with.

The fight against corruption in the gambling industry is an ongoing battle and one which neither side can really claim to have won. While the internet has brought much joy to many it has also given ruthless business people the chance to set-up illegal operations and market to a worldwide audience.  The authorities may have won the last few rounds, the fight still goes on.

As news broke today that the US Federal Bank had reduced US interest rates by three quarters of one percent, the pressure has now been placed fairly and squarely at the door of the Bank of England to follow suit.  But what will happen next?

The US cut was a direct action to try and curb the worldwide credit crunch which has seen the cost of finance increase around the world.  This was reflected in the announcement that while UK rates were recently reduced by quarter of one percent, many mortgage providers where actually forced into increasing their rates to coincide with the massive increase in the cost of finance.  Not since the early 1980s when the US was in the grip of recession have we seen such a major reduction in rates, so surely the Bank of England will need to follow?

Any major reduction in rates by the Bank of England is a major gamble on two levels, first there is the chance that it might send out panic signals to the wider market, something which could heap further pressure on the UK economy.  There is also the possibility that inflation could run rampant again if rates were slashed too far and consumers took advantage of the cheap money which would be on offer.  So does the UK always follow the US lead?

Unlike many partners of the US, the UK has always gone about their own strategy with the Bank of England having much experience of similar situations in the past. This is an experience which has been passed down the line to the major interest rate decision makers at the Bank.  However, it seems inevitable that UK rates will fall at least by quarter of one percent at the next meeting in two weeks, but hopes of a major slashing of the rate may be a little wide of the mark.  Time will tell…..

It may have been around for over 100 years, it may have seen of the full array of economic climates, but is seems as though the emergence of neighbouring Macau as a gambling capital of the Far East may be about to kill off Hong Kong Racing once and for all.  So what is going on?

While the popularity of horse racing around the world has grown over recent years, it has always been a very strong brand in the Far East.  Gambling is second nature to many in the region and the buzz of a day at races has proved to be a magnet for millions.  However, the massive expansion drive in the enclave of Macau has seen many of the high rollers previously associated with racing, move to the new super casinos.  It is the high rollers which make any gambling industry profitable, and it seems that it is this section of the community who have jumped ship and opted for the casinos of Macau.

Official figures for the Hong Kong Jockey Club show a fall in annual income of some $2.4 million a year, over twenty percent of the groups total income, which many believe has gone directly into the coffers of casino barons in Macau.  So what next for the old establishment? Can the Jockey Club fight back?

While the Jockey Club have been trying to make headway into new markets such as the internet, worldwide TV, etc, their plans have been hampered by the growing casino culture in the area.  Talk of the Club folding over the coming years is still very much speculation and highky unlikely, but it seems that there will need to be some major changes in due course. 

As they say in life, “You never know what you had until it’s gone!”, and it would be a sad day to see horse racing under more pressure in the region.

As news begins to filter through the sport that Lewis Hamilton has signed a £36 million contract which will see him remain with the McLaren team until 2012, there are many who think this is one of the largest gambles McLaren have ever taken.  There are some in the sport who feel that Hamilton was in the right place at the right time last year (even though he was just piped at the post) and he failed to deliver when the pressure began to mount.  So is it really a gamble?

While a contract of this size in any sport is a major gamble, McLaren chairman Ron Dennis is a man who does his own thing, something which has brought him great success in and outside of the sport.  He is a man who has a gut feeling for situations, stars and the potential of his team and team members.  At the height of team problems last year it was evident that he thought Hamilton was the man for the future as he seemed to side with his “rookie” over the then reigning world champion Fernando Alonso.

The interesting thing about the Lewis Hamilton story is the fact that he did do so well in his first year, and he did take the championship to the wire.  Many people are judging the flying machine as someone who has been on the scene for years when, as he admits himself, he is still very much learning the sport.  Those with an in depth knowledge of the sport will know that Hamilton has been mentioned at the top table for many years, ever since he emerged in junior racing, and he has been ear marked by Ron Dennis for some time.

The new season starts on March 16th with the traditional Australian race to kick off what promises to be a very interesting and very competitive year!

While the basics are very much the same, a quick thinking brain and a mind for figures, some people have been suggesting that it may help younger children to learn the skills of gambling.  Well not gambling as such, but games which involve probability and encourage the players to think about the chances of certain events happening.  Is this a useful way to learn kids about maths or is it a high risk strategy which could see severe gambling problems in later life?

There is no doubt that these suggestions are controversial in their own right and there are potential risks with regards to possible addiction, etc.  However, it has been proved through an array of tests that some people have obsessive personalities which make them susceptible to possible addiction.  There is a massive difference between playing a game for fun and addiction, but there will need to be various safety nets in place.

An addictive personality does not necessarily mean that you will always become addicted to gambling or any particular sport or pastime.  It may be an addiction to shopping, TV, football or some other interest or activity.  Gambling addicts receive more than their fair share of publicity because of the potential dangers with regards to finances and life style.  However, thankfully the gaming industry has spotted the need to remain vigilant with regards to possible problems and there is now a comprehensive network of help groups available for gambling addicts or those who feel they may develop a problem.

When you strip down all gambling activities they are basically a game of chance, a game of probability, which can all be defined using mathematical formulas.  As far as teaching children, it has been shown time and time again that they learn better when they enjoy their lessons, when they have a challenge, rather than reading out of books and copying work.  While there is much work to be done on this proposition, it is an interesting angle.

Over the last couple of years we have seen some major issues in the world of cricket, from the death of Bob Woolmer under suspicious circumstances at the cricket world cup to the recent infighting during the ongoing India / Australia Test series.  So has cricket become more of a political event than sport?

If the truth be known there have always been an array of simmering rivalries in the game of cricket but the competition between teams has reached fever pitch of late.  We have seen various on field bust ups, deliberate flouting of the basic rules of cricket and more and more political back biting and pressure being applied to the Cricketing Authorities.  So is it time to draw a line under the rivalries and start again?

It would be perfect if the cricket teams and management teams could actually get back to playing the game rather than trying to influence different areas for their own means.  During the recent racism row regarding the Indian and Australian teams we saw decisions over ruled, bans lifted and pressure exerted to ensure that certain umpires were not able to do their jobs properly.  All this in the midst of what is a very finely balanced and interesting Test match series.

While the Australian / Indian fallout is only the latest in a long line of disagreements in the sport, it is one which has led to riots in the streets, calls of unfair decision making and even called into question the impartiality of cricket umpires – something which would never have even been contemplated only ten years ago.  So why are things changing so quickly?

While the rivalries have always been there we are probably looking at the pressure of increased sponsorship and prize money in the sport.  The fight for a larger share of the money pie seems to be behind much of the disputes.  Surely we can go back to the days when cricket was a gentleman’s sport?

While it may have had the most successful year on record, the Colonial Downs horse racing track has been put up for sale by its owners Jacobs Entertainment.  Why has Jacobs decided to call it a day after a record year?

The problems revolve around the introduction of other gambling tools in and around the racetrack, something which many states in the US have been looking at for some time.  The New Ken County based racetrack has been unable to come to an agreement with local authorities on the introduction of Poker and over casino like facilities in their complex.  This not only affects the main Colonial Downs course but also their other nine affiliated tracks which have also been enjoying the good times.  So what next?

There is speculation that the move to put the business up for sale is no more than the first shot in what could turn out to be a long term battle of wills to see who will crack first.  The authorities would prefer to have an owner who was committed to the business and able to push it forward in a professional manner, thereby guaranteeing the already substantial employment of locals by Jacobs Entertainment.  However the fact that Jacobs Entertainment is in all honesty a casino dominated business should not be ignored and they may have an ulterior motive with their actions.  Many are suggesting that they are trying to pressure the authorities into effectively giving them a casino licence by proxy.

The US casino industry has gained in strength over the last twelve months in the light of the online gambling ban, something which has taken away a large amount of unwanted competition.  Quite how this particular situation will pan out remains to be seen but the influence of the gaming industry has never been stronger in the US.

As the EU Commission continue their fight with the US government with regards to the online gambling ban in the States a new problem has emerged with the German authorities taking a similar approach.  The German government have banned online gambling, with the exception of horse racing and other state run monopolies, which has effectively locked down the German online gambling market. 

While clearly in breach of a number of EU regulations the Competition Commission are looking at reaching an amicable solution which will not involve legal action.  It is ironic that while fighting the US for access to their online gambling markets the EU has been dealt such a bitter blow by one of their own members.  So does this weaken the case against the US, who may well argue they do not have access to the whole of the European market?

The US are bound to bring up this matter the next time formal discussions are instigated and to be honest what viable response would the EU be able to offer? The problem with the whole issue of online gambling is the millions of dollars which is at stake, and the potential for significant further growth in the future.  Each and every government around the world seem to feel that they are missing out on massive income as many of these companies are registered in offshore tax havens.  So what will happen longer term?

At some stage it seems that the industry and the authorities will come to some kind of formal agreement probably involving some kind of “passport” system whereby only approved companies can trade in various parts of the world.  Exactly how this would be administered and monitored is still unclear but this situation cannot drag on forever.

The online poker room titan poker has announced the launch of its new winter league, giving online players the opportunity to stay indoors and play for a further $60,000  in prize money.

Starting on January 14, four poker tournaments will be held every Monday, Wednesday and Saturday, with the top five players in each tournament to be ranked on a special leaderboard.

The top 200 players at the end of the winter league will then be given the opportunity to take part in an exclusive $50,000 free-roll tournament, to be staged at the end of March.

The new league will serve as the ideal warm-up for Titan poker’s $2 million guaranteed prize tournament, which kicks off in March and in which players have the chance of winning total payouts of in excess of $10 million every month.

Just recently, the Poker Players Alliance announced that its membership has reached the 850,000 mark, with the organisation confident it can break the one million barrier over the coming months thanks to the booming online gaming sector.

The Las Vegas-based gaming tycoon Steve Wynn has reportedly showed an interest in opening a casino in Massachusetts.

Just recently, the state’s governor Deval Patrick announced that he is considering legalising gambling, promoting a number of gaming operators to express some interest into expanding their operations there.

According to the Boston Globe, Wynn has been in contact with the owner of a race track in the state and has discussed the possibility of moving forward.

The Wonderland Park in the town of Revere has also received some interest and could be lined up as a possible gambling resort should the mooted legislation come into effect, the newspaper also reported.

Donald Trump, Foxwoods, Mohegan Sun and the Seminole Tribe of Florida have all been linked with the theme park over recent weeks.

Earlier this week it was announced that Steve Wynn’s Macau resort is to be subject to an expansion project, with 85 gaming tables and 551 further slot machines to be added.

As we speculated just a few days ago the Newcastle United Football Club managerial door has again swung full circle and out goes Sam Allardyce, but who will take his place?

While the big gamble was supposed to be Alan Shearer, the Geordie legend, it now seems that the chance to manage his home town has come a little too early.  If the bookies are right it is Harry Redknapp who will be the next Newcastle boss even though both he and his current club Portsmouth have denied any knowledge of Newcastle’s interest.  So how have the bookies installed him as favourite?

In an intriguing development the multi millionaire owner of Newcastle United, Mike Ashley, is rumoured to have already offered Redknapp the use of his private jet any time that he wants, so that he can commute between his home in the South of England and Newcastle.  Again this is all hearsay, but it all adds to the mix and seems to have caught the attention of gamblers throughout the UK, with Redknapp now a red hot even money favourite to become the next through the managerial door at the “Toon”.

This is yet again another example of how the gambling markets can very often reflect what is going on behind the scenes, while on the surface some of the odds being offered may not look reasonable.  If you remember the time when Redknapp returned to Portsmouth from Southampton there were constant denials in the paper but the gambling markets could not see past Redknapp returning as boss – as it happened he did return and an official investigation was launched into irregular betting patterns.

Do not under-estimate the power of the gambling markets because more often that not they will get it right, but do not bank on it one hundred percent of the time!

Fontainebleau has announced that Audrey Oswell will be the new president and CEO of its forthcoming $2.9 billion Las Vegas mega-resort.

In addition to looking after the 3,812-room Fontainebleau Las Vegas, Ms Oswell will take charge of all aspects of the gaming group’s operations in the city.

The venue, which is currently under construction, will boast a 95,000 square-foot casino, a 3,300-seat theatre and cinema, a state-of-the-art conferencing centre and the world’s largest rooftop pool and club offering views down the famous Las Vegas strip.

Prior to this new position, Ms Oswell worked as the CEO at the Cosmopolitan Resort and Casino, also in Las Vegas, and she has held top positions with Caesars in Atlantic City.

“Audrey is one of the casino resort industry’s most accomplished executives,” said Howard Karawan, Chief Operating Officer, Fontainebleau Resorts.

“We’re confident her vision and leadership will help drive Fontainebleau Las Vegas to become one of the world’s most spectacular destinations.”

In yet more moves designed to stamp out any possible connection between the US and online gambling, it has been announced that 12 people have been arrested in various parts of the US charged with gambling, conspiracy to engage in gambling and money laundering.  It seems that this is the result on a long term investigation into the “trafficking” of gambling clients from a Costa Rica based gambling site to US bookies.  So what exactly happened?

It seems that the owners of the Costa Rica site were “selling” customers to US based bookies, charging between $15 and $30 for each sign up.  Over the last few years it has been estimated that the defendants received millions of dollars in revenue and were operating a very quick, focused and lucrative arrangement.  They have been hit by the fact that online gambling in the US is outlawed as is the signing up of customers using an internet based system – even though it was in Costa Rica – and they were operating without the relevant licences.

This is just the latest in a long list of scams which have hit the US gambling industry over the last 12 months.  The move to effectively lock down the online industry was always controversial and it has taken nearly 3 years to bring this group to justice, although it seems that there may be more arrests to follow in the short term.  A gambling sign-up is by far and away the most potentially lucrative of clients on the internet, with hundreds of ways to pull in and retain customers for the long term.  This is the reason why the business of actually signing up customers has attracted so many “undesirables”.

The gambling industry was always one which was very difficulty to police, with many underground operations, but since the internet it has become very expensive and almost impossible to stamp out these abuses.  Are the authorities fighting a losing battle?

Following several difficult months, Atlantic City’s casinos look set to report strong revenues over the coming year, financial experts have predicted.

Fortunately for the New Jersey city, no more gaming venues are scheduled to open in any of its rival East Coast states in 2008, though it will continue to be hit by the booming gaming industry there, particularly in eastern Pennsylvania, where new resorts are scheduled to open in 2009 and 2010.

According to new figures released by the independent research firm Spectrum Gaming Group, Atlantic City will generate $4.99 billion in gross gaming revenue in 2008, a two per cent improvement on the 2007 total.

However, Harvey B Perkins, Spectrum senior vice president for analysis, warned: “Within that forecasted increase, there are powerful forces dampening our projections.

“These range from continued competition from Pennsylvania casinos to a tightened smoking ban at Atlantic City casinos to declining consumer confidence of their finances.”

Sands Bethworks in Bethlehem and Sugarhouse in Philadelphia are set to be the next rivals to Atlantic City’s casinos when they open in around 18 months time.