Gambling Blog

Whatever time of the day you log on to a betting site there will be a market for you to gamble on, the odds will be changing and the chances are if it is a popular sport it will be very active.  But how do gambling markets really work and how can they change so quickly?

If you take a step back from the traditional gambling market and just think through exactly what you are seeing.  In front of your eyes you are seeing the rapid dissemination of information, the odds changing with the weight of money and a coming together of news and views.  A gambling market is basically an information exchange where all known (and often inside) information is entered into the market and the relevant odds produced.  Information prompts people to bet and the weight of money will move the market – although there are often times when a market will move on information alone, e.g. if the favourite horse were to drop out of a race the other horses left would have a better chance of winning and their odds would change accordingly.

When you see sudden movements in the odds for a certain event, if you watch carefully you may see them go a little too far in one direction and then be slowly drawn back in.  The market has a great ability to level itself out in a very short space of time, although you may still experience short term spikes and falls.  One of the main problems with the gambling markets is the fact that they are often very susceptible to rumours and wild accusations, but again you will see these views digested by the market and “fair odds” arrived at in a very short space of time – the market will soon tell you whether the rumours are correct.

If you learn how to read the gambling markets you can actually learn a lot and make some substantial returns.  To do this you need to “follow the money” and not include any emotion in your decision, just follow the market.  While it won’t work all of the time, you will be surprised – but then again you are only gambling on the market disseminating the information correctly!

Whether you are looking at football, rugby, cricket or crown green bowls, why does ever gambler think that they are right? That they can beat the market and have spotted something which nobody else has picked up on?

The gambling industry is one of the few industries in the world where you are the boss, where you can make your own mind up about some odds being incorrect, and ultimately you can take on a vast array of different risk levels to try and increase your winnings.  Prior to the result of the event nobody can be sure what the result will be, they may have a good idea, but for that time between placing your bet and the event finishing you can often drift into that dream zone where your big bet comes home. 

While many would argue that the market is not often wrong, there have been times when people have done their homework and spotted a “mis-pricing” on the exchanges or in the bookies.  That is not to say that the gamble will always come in, but you can still give yourself a chance if you do manage to spot something before the general market.  Using the betting exchanges today it is possible to take you bet at the higher odds and hedge when the market catches on and the odds start to fall – giving yourself the chance of crystallising an arbitrage situation.

Alternatively you may see a participant in a particular event being heavily backed when you think the market is wrong.  If you are prepared to take the risk there is big money to be made laying favourites in some races where maybe the form book does not reflect the odds or the weather changes very suddenly. 

Ultimately each and every gambler will think that they are right until the event is over, and they can drift into that dream zone when they can imagine bringing home the big outsider winner, or laying the odds on favourite before it was beaten.  While reality can bring your dreams crashing down, you can convince yourself that you are right before the truth hits home!

As we look ahead to next years Beijing Olympics, bookmakers are already rubbing their hands in expectation of bumper pay days along the way.  But have you ever considered betting on the Olympics?

If you are sensible and do your homework the Olympics could well turn out to be one of the best betting coups of next year.  As bookmakers all around the world will be offering odds for each event, the winning teams and other “side bets” there will be a great chance for some arbitration across continents.  The internet is you tool, now let us get your mind in gear!

If a country has a “top” athlete in a race or in a tournament then there is every chance that local support will result in their particular odds being less than maybe they should be – we saw this with the Ricky Hatton fight where the sheer volume of UK bets moved the market.  This is the same for the Olympics and any other sport which crosses nations.  All you need to do is open up accounts in different areas of the world and hedge off each bet to make use of the difference in odds – sound too simple?

Historically you are liable to get more arbitrage situations the wider appeal that the event has, whether this be the World Cup, the Ryder Cup or a Swimming Championships – events which can, and often do, transcend continents.  If you do decide to have looked at arbitrage situations next year you should start to test your theory and plans before then, on other events with world wide appeal.

One word of warning, unless you are very lucky you will not make a fortune on single sports betting arbitrages,  but if you are focused, determined and know what you are doing it is possible to bring in a number of small wins which can soon mount up. 

Last Saturday saw the much awaited world championship boxing match between UK challenger Ricky “Hit Man” Hatton and Floyd “Pretty Boy” Mayweather – a clash of styles, a clash of personalities and in some ways perhaps one of the biggest grudge matches for some time.  But how was the betting effected by the challengers fan base?

There are few sports in the world where common sense and straight thinking can so quickly disappear, with millions of British gamblers taking a punt on the challenger knocking out the “pretty boy”, despite Mayweather being odds on favourite to win.  Hatton’s odds came in to 7/4 in places as the UK betting industry saw unprecedented support for their man and his quest for yet another belt.

The truth is that fan bases can move markets, they can upset the balance of the betting arena and ultimately they can affect the thinking of the teams and people involved.  While Hatton received unbelievable support from his UK followers in the end he was unable to tame the man from the US, and the UK bookmakers all breathed a sigh of relief – with the industry looking at multi-million pound loses in the event of a Hatton win.  Many suggested that Hatton should not have been a 7/4 gamble, with some suggesting odds of nearer 5/1 being fair, but it was the weight of money from the UK which made a difference to the odds.

So why did this particular event receive such attention and have such an impact upon the betting odds?

This fight had a number of elements to it :-

• Hatton and Mayweather were both unbeaten.
• It a was a UK v US fight – prompting a split of loyalty for each country’s man.
• The clash of personalities was enormous, with many hoping to see the “pretty boy” come unstuck.

All of these elements worked together to give the fight an edge which has not been seen in the sport for some time.  The simple weight of money from gamblers saw “false” pricing compared to views in the cold light of day, but that did not stop the phenomenal support for the “Hit man” who did his followers proud, even in defeat.

The world of gambling has thrown up some weird and wonderful bets over the years from fathers betting that their sons will play football for England (Chris Kirkland’s father is rumoured to have collected on a bet that his son would play for England) to confirmation that there is life on the moon.  There are many bookmakers who will take a gamble on just about anything, but what is the strangest bet you have made?

We thought it might be interesting to hear about those betting slips you have hidden away in the back of your wallet, the ones which everyone said would never happen, the ones they laughed at when you went to place them. 

Also, what is the strangest bet which you have ever won with, was it man landing on the moon, was it all four winners of the English Football League or was it the time when reserve participants Demark own the European Championships after Yugoslavia were thrown out?

To give you a flavour of some of the great gambles which have come in check the story below :-

The 2001 Grand National was mired in controversy as the rain sodden course would normally have been deemed dangerous, but this was the National with hundreds of millions of viewers worldwide – they could not afford to call it off.  As the rain continued to fall a number of savvy punters hooked up with Red Marauder, an 11 year old which would normally have no chance – its record was terrible but the rumour was that it liked rain.

On the morning of the event Blue Square were caught short offering odds of 66/1 on the horse to win, odds which had crashed to 33/1 just before the off.  As the weather took its toll on the race there were only two horses left standing at the end and guess who came in to win the biggest horse racing prize of all – yes, Red Marauder, another piece of Grand National history.

Let us hear about bets you have running and bets which you won with……………

In a move which seems to pre-empt any future actions by the Association Of Tennis Professionals (ATP), the governing body of tennis in Australia, Tennis Australia, have taken their own action to ensure that January�s tournament is free from any betting scandals.� It seems that they have tired of waiting for official global action by the main tennis authority and have taken the matter into their own hands.

The head of Tennis Australia, Steve Wood, has taken the rather unusual step of appointing a third party corporate security company to monitor betting activity in next years tournament, to ensure everything is �whiter than white�.� This move comes hot on the heels of the most recent accusation of match fixing, which allegedly saw former Wimbledon Doubles Champion Michael Llodra being approached some 4 years ago to effectively throw a match.

While there are many in the sport who applaud the actions of Tennis Australia, the ATP are sure to be fuming that their thunder has been stolen and their slow reaction to the threat is being highlighted.� Nobody is quite sure what the ATP advice is, as they have been fairly quiet for some time, stating that they are under going an investigation into various allegations.� However, those in the sport are crying out for help and guidance now, at a time when tennis is being dragged through the mud.

This constant drip feed of unsubstantiated accusations is starting to take its toll, although it will be interesting to see what findings are made in the Australian Open next year.� Perhaps this is the stand which will break the back of the match fixers, or will this tear the sport apart through lack of guidance and advice? Either way, unilateral action is required sooner rather than later, before the sport is overwhelmed by the stench of scandal.

At a time when some areas of the online gambling community are suffering for obvious reasons, i.e. the US situation, it seems that life has never been better for the betting exchanges but why?

You need to understand how the betting exchanges work before you can fully appreciate their business model, and the fact that they can adapt to any situation.� In essence, the betting exchanges pit �punter� against �punter� with no liability what so ever for the betting exchange operator.� The betting exchange operators take a cut of the winnings from all bets, and while these can vary from a few pence to hundreds of pounds they also have massive volumes of bets.�

Why only take from the winners?

The fact that the exchanges only charge a �commission� to winning bets is quite clever, because they take a fee from the winner, leaving the loser with a little more money to bet again.� For each bet to be placed there needs to be someone to lay the bet, and vice versa, so the exchange take a fee of every single position taken.

How can they adapt so quickly?

As there is no liability taken by the exchange, they can simply introduce a new event any time of the day or night, and their customers will find a level for each possible bet.� As long as the event has some level of popularity, there will soon be enough people laying and placing bets to find the natural �real odds�.� This is done without the intervention of the exchange - simple!

As a consequence of the way they work they can open a �book� on any event whether it be cycling, F1, politics, the weather tomorrow or whether England will play in a red or white football strip!� Whatever market they introduce there will be sufficient clients to create a liquid market.

The betting exchanges have taken substantial business from the traditional bookmakers and the two sides of the gambling industry are always at loggerheads.� Unfortunately for the traditional bookmaker, where �punters� see nobody influencing markets or claiming tax from every stake, they will be attracted.� How can the traditional bookmakers fight back?

One of the main growth areas in sports betting is the in play option which many betting exchanges have introduced for games such as football, tennis, cricket, etc.� While there are many gamblers who tend to steer clear of in play situations, they can be very very lucrative if you know what you are looking for, and the setting is correct.

One thing which many people seem to forget is that no matter how professional these sports men and woman are, they will and do get tired towards the end of a game.� When tiredness creeps in, that is when mistakes are more likely to happen, and someone is likely to suffer! If you study the UK football Premier League, you will see exactly what we mean with many goals scored in the final 10 minutes of games.� So how can this be more lucrative?

The beauty about in play betting is that the less of a game left to play, the larger the difference in the odds for results such as a draw or win for either team.� If the game is 0 - 0 with 2 minutes left, the odds on a win (for either team) will be higher than at the start of the game, purely because there is less time left to score a goal.� At this stage, you would probably see the odds on a draw under evens, because this is the most likely outcome.

If you follow a particular team and know that they often come on strong at the end of a game, and with the game set at 0 - 0 and odds of 10/1 on a win for your team, it may just be worth a gamble! Next time you are watching the results come in, just notice how many games have late goals - often in the last few seconds of a game, when the odds on a particular outcome could be sky high.

While sports participation continues to grow throughout the world, with many of the smaller countries now putting teams forward for such events as the Olympics, as well as� the emergence of Far East golfing stars to name but a couple, there is speculation that sports betting is becoming the �new sport of the world�.� It seems that whatever event is happening, anywhere in the world, someone will be runnig a book on it and it will be available online - and often in play!

In the UK, you are now able to bet on the number of corners in one football game , the first booking, a handicap score and many many more weird and wonderful bets.� On the downside, this has opened up sport to the gambling cartels, who appear to have found a way into the centre of sport on a number of occasions.� There have been suspicious bets on horse races, on tennis matches, baseball games and football games alike.� Hard as it is to prove, it seems obvious that various sports have been infiltrated on a number of occasions - but that has not put off the traditional armchair gambler!

As gambling income continues to grow and betting becomes more and more accepted in a whole range of social situations, it seems that the industry looks set to grow and grow.� Such has been the phenomenal growth in the industry that it is in itself becoming a sport - although not one that you would ever see at the Olymipcs!

Like any �sport� there are numerous skills involved, and there needs to be a certain element of interest in the sport to get the best out of it.� While we are hearing about stranger and stranger bets - some of which come in - there are new markets opening on an almost daily basis.� In effect, where there is a potential for two different views, there is a potential betting market, and it wont be long before someone finds it!

While the betting exchanges continue to have a major impact upon the world of online gambling, they have also opened up a new industry - In Play betting.� This is an industry which has grown massively over the last couple of years, with more and more events now available �In Play�.� Traditionally it had been the likes of football which were most popular amongst In Play gamblers, but there is also a major customer base in the horse racing, cricket and tennis betting markets.

Is It Safe?

While In Play betting can move very quickly, especially in the likes of horse racing when a horse may unseat its rider or fall at a fence, for those with the time to study the markets, and in possession of a broadband connection (ever more vital for In Play betting), it can be very lucrative.� However, it can also be a big big gamble, with many taking very small odds to increase their �pot� on �dead certs�.� There is no such thing as a dead cert in any sport!

The major market for such In Play events is the arm chair viewer, who like to have a gamble as they are watching the event unfold.� This does have dangers, especially in the horse racing industry!

It is a little known fact that there is actually a time delay of a few seconds between the horse race being filmed, and replayed on the TV, so those advertised as �live� are very often not.� While this� may seem like a very small delay, it can be vital for those on the track looking to hedge bets on a tiring horse, or lay bets on a horse which has just fallen, with their odds yet to be updated for a few seconds.

As with any betting event, the customer needs to go in with their eyes open and be fully aware of the possible risks and downfalls.� Nothing is ever certain in the betting industry, and even less now, as much of it has moved online!

Over the last few years we have seen a massive explosion in the number of betting exchanges, an industry which seems to be constantly growing.�

It is at such a level that it has actually had an effect on the business of the traditional bookmakers,� who are now desperate to protect their own business.� Despite a number of tax changes to try and �level the playing field� it appears that many gamblers are still moving their business to the betting exchanges.

What are the benefits of betting exchanges?

The main benefits of betting exchanges are the improved odds for customers, and the transparency which is available for each and every betting exchange market.� It is now simple to see at a glance any changes in the market, and monitor these real time on the internet.� This has offered the astute and alert gambler the chance to try and �piggy back� trends as and when they happen - with many making a lucrative living from this!

The volume of business on these betting exchanges has grown dramatically over the last couple of years and there are rumours than the traditional bookmakers are using these instruments to actually hedge off their own positions - a suggestion refuted by the industry.�

Are their any negative aspects about betting exchanges?

Unfortunately betting exchanges have opened up a whole new market to the public, betting AGAINST horses - i.e. laying off bets.� While this is a legitimate market, there have been recent instances of organised gangs using this method to bet on �fixed� events, with many earning millions of pounds in the process.�

There have been a number of suspensions, court actions and investigations and the betting exchanges have now agreed to flag any �suspicious� activity, and also pass over the details of these accounts as and when the authorities require them.

All in all betting exchanges are set to grow and grow over the coming years, although the traditional bookmakers are sure to continue their constant battle to protect their own markets.� Who is your money on?